Friday, 18 August 2017

Gold's Bull Market Final Technical Resistance - Part 4

When i wrote part 3 of this 4-part series (on 6 June 2017), i said it was the final part in this series. It turned out not to be. Well, i did say that maybe i was making this call too hastily. I wrote the article on the day when the price finally poked up the 6 year downtrend line. What i should do was to wait for a few more days to see how prices play out, and the breakout turned out to be a false breakout.

Gold prices showing 2 breakouts from the long term downtrend line.
Gold prices showing 2 breakouts from the long term downtrend line.

The green horizontal line marks the previous as well as height for YTD. Gold prices tested this horizontal green line and went back into the long term downtrend line after i wrote part 3. So how is this latest breakout different than the previous false breakout in June?

There're 2 things.

1.  Gold prices didn't drop back below the long term downtrend line, instead, it retests the downtrend line and bounces off.

2.  While the June breakout pokes its head briefly above the downtrend line in the daily chart, but if you look at its weekly chart, there was no breakout at all. See weekly chart below,

Weekly chart of spot gold from 2011 to 2017 showing breakout
Weekly chart of spot gold from 2011 to 2017 showing breakout

While it's a very positive development for gold bulls with this very eagerly long-awaited breakout of the long term downtrend, the next important level to watch is clearly the green horizontal line of around $1295 level. If we could convincingly break above this level, preferably $1300, and proceed to stay above $1305, which is the November high last year.  Once this target is clear, we'll once again having the kind of bullishness that we experienced in the 1st half of 2016.

Now that we've seen the technical reason for gold's bullishness, there's also a positive support from its fundamental driver. As i mentioned in last previous article Reflection of Reflation Trade? and argue that reflation is good for gold prices, and how both the copper and gold was trapped under similar 6-year downtrend. We have just seen a rather convincing and sustained breakout of Dr. Copper from its 6 year downtrend line for 2 months. Zinc prices, too, are doing something similar. All these bode well for gold prices going forward.

Monthly copper price chart from 2010 to 2017 showing breakout from 6 year long term downtrend
Monthy copper price chart from 2010 to 2017 showing breakout from 6 year long term downtrend

And ah yes, gold is now, for the 1st time since 2011, is entering bull market territory, based on this long term downtrend line. All that occurred in 2016 was nothing but a relief or bear rally (again, from this long term downtrend point of view). Although the best name for the rally in 2016 is Sucker Rally because it sucks many eager bulls into the rally that keep falling since its peak in Aug 2016. Many bulls that bought it in Aug and Sep 2016 are still losing money.

Saturday, 12 August 2017

Funny Caption 50: President Trump's Sound of Fury

"How about 'fire and brimstone' ?"

"How about 'bing bing bing bong' ?"

"What about adding a trade war with China ?"

"What about a rapid-fire of tweets like the world has never seen?"

"...full of sound and fury, signifying Trump presidency."

Tuesday, 8 August 2017

Funny Caption 49: QE2's Dominion

queen Elisabeth II

"I love headgear. This one is my favourite."

"Yes dear, I own Australia, Canada, New Zealand, etc, etc, etc..."

"Let me assure you, Illuminati or the Rothschilds are nothing to be afraid of..."

"Despite having dominion over 1/6 of the world landmass, I still have no control over what comes out of the mouth of the Duke of Edinburgh..."

"And the next country goes to..."

Monday, 7 August 2017

Inaniwa Yosuke (稲庭養助): The Silkiest Udon I've Eaten (in Singapore)

435 Orchard Road  #04-45
Wisma Atria Shopping Centre, 
Singapore 238877

 The Place 

It's located in Japan Food Town in Wisma Atria shopping mall. It's the 1st time i visited there, although Ada reminded me that i've been there before. I take her words for it. The Japanese establishments here are in general more upmarket and its bill-of-fare consists of high priced dishes. This is why lowly foodie like myself frequent there in low frequency. Hence my strange familiarity of the place. The 50% off have lured me there today like bee to honey (or candy to kids or white powder to 17th century French visconte or Japanese geisha). We booked it through the eatigo app.

Inaniwa Yosuke, Singapore

Inaniwa Yosuke, Singapore

According to their literature, their secret Inaniwa udon secret recipe was developed in 1665 (just a year before the Great London Fire) only to serve the imperial court members. It wasn't until 1860 that the udon went public. So a lowly (but extremely humble) pleb like myself feel doubly (because of the half price) honoured to taste their udon today.

Below is a poster on their wall.

Inaniwa Yosuke, Singapore
Look up the's a's a's ramen!
I too love to play with food. Does it play Sakura, my fave Japanese folk song?

 The Food 
Inaniwa Yosuke, Singapore

Inaniwa Yosuke restaurant, Singapore
From top left to bottom right: soup base with ingredients, the famous udon, raw egg, garnishes, peanut desert, and extra soup

I ordered the Beef Tsuke Nabe Udon. The udon didn't disappoint. It's the silkiest udon i've ever sampled, in Singapore (i emphasized Singapore because i did taste smoother noodles in Osaka, if my memories served as well as the Japanese waitress. Flying to Osaka for a good udon is bad for wealth). So no head is rolled today (if we're living in 1665 - 1855). The soup is delicious, but slightly sweet for my taste buds (which prefer bitterness. Like owner like palate). It could be described as "I'm sophisticated, but modest and understated because i'm Japanese." Take a bow(l).

The beef - while it's not from the wagyu cows that received massage (probably an urban a countryside legend) - it's still nice enough. I actually much prefer these leaner beef over the fat brown cows any day. Of course, if they put wagyu beef into the soup, my wallet will lose a lot of weight after eating the fatty beef. Call me crazy, i love a fat wallet.

The desert is mildly familiar, but kept me in suspense as to its ingredient. Since i don't have peanut allergy, i can't wear to its existence.

If they keep up the half price, i'll keep up twice the visits.

Overall score: 8 / 10.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Transport Index IYT Finding Support Soon?

Dow theory occupies an important place for many investor. I don't believe it (well, not worshiping it), and i've seen evidence to the contrary (that's for another article). This is for those who believe in Dow Theory. Who wants to argue with the market? I don't.

After a quick run-up in May 2017, it deteriorates rapidly since July 2017. We're now testing the 200 DMA.

IYT etf showing price around 200 DMA
IYT etf showing price around 200 DMA

But if we fail this we have an even more critical and longer term IYT/SPY ratio support coming up. This ratio is on a steady up trend since IYT comes to existence.

IYT/SPY ratio from 2004 to 2017
IYT/SPY ratio from 2004 to 2017
(click to enlarge)

So IYT may still have a bit more downside (based on the ratio chart), which has ridden both bull and bear cycle, and remains uptrend for more than a decade. If the support of the ratio chart fails, i would be worry.  Believer or not.

UPDATE (3 Aug): IYT tested, held and bounces off 200DMA nicely today. Bought some good corrected airlines and other transport stocks for quick swing trades.