Wednesday, 25 April 2018

Bitcoin: Time to Buy

Only a few days after my previous post Bitcoin: Breakout of Down Trend, i decide to load up on my Bitcoins. The time i bought my Bitcoin is indicated in the chart ("Bought here").

I have broken my cardinal rule and bought it early, instead of buying it at "Should buy here" in the chart, which confirms that the prices has moved back above the rising trend line ABCDE after broke below it recently (read my previous posts if you wish to understand the significance of the ABCDE rising trend line).

Bitcoin chart april 2018
(Click chart to enlarge)

As it turned out, while i broke my own rule, i saved some dough by entering Bitcoin at lower price. I broke the rule because i sense a change of sentiment in the Bitcoin.

Of course, the breakout of the falling purple channel is a clearest indication of the reversal of bearish sentiment. Also, after the steep fall from Dec 2017 to Feb 2018, Bitcoin prices has been going sideways since Feb within the horizontal channel bounded by the 2 green horizontal lines. Logically, i believe the next target would be the upper horizontal green line.

Besides the chart, i'm also sensing the positive change in the sentiment in the Bitcoin community at large. This is why i didn't wait until the confirmation that the prices needed to break above the ABCDE trend line.

You can speculate all you want with the reasons as to why the return of the bullishness in the Bitcoin prices lately. For example, some would say that the whales (the Bitcoin players with large holdings) want to stop the bleeding by buying it up big. Or that this is a logical technical bounces from this year's low ("C" in chart) to form double bottoms. Or that this is simply the start of Bitcoin bullish seasonality. Actually, i've the strongest conviction in this last one. In other words, the reason is the season(ality).

It doesn't matter what do you think the reason (for the season) is, the chart tells me when to buy without needing to know all the reasons, which you won't be able to know them all.

One last reason that i broke my rule and not too disciplined is that, at these prices, the reward to risk ratio is quite good. While i'm not a HODLer, i don't trade in and out frequently. In other words, swing trade Bitcoin. But i am not a HODLer either. I'm a trend trader, who trades on major trends. So i don't haggle over a small percentages.

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