Monday, 1 May 2017

Next Probable Bitcoin Price Target: Part 2

This is just a follow up on this article published a couple of days ago on Saturday 29 April 2017.

I've sold my holding on Poloniex for $1558.8 today just before i published this article. BTC price has reached the vicinity of my estimated target, which comes a little sooner than i thought. The large one day bar (up in excess of 9% at the day's high) today with record volume suggests a blow off top (not dissimilar to the peak of 4 Jan 2017). Now i wait for it to come down for my next buy. If this break out of the trend line continues for a few more days, i would consider re-enter at price above this upper trend line.

This large volume and price surge signal that the price is at a pivot level; in this case, the upper trend line. These price actions suggest that some traders are betting on a breakout above the trend line.

At this point in time, my view is that this is just a false break out (bear in mind that there's such false break out on 10 March 2017). Will have to wait a few more days to confirm or reject this view, and trade accordingly. There's no need for me to make a call at this time that it will be a real or false break out. I sold my holding once my price target is reached and locked in my profit. If the breakout is indeed confirmed in the near future, i will re-enter. That will be a completely new trade. I have lost little by locking my gain now, and re-enter later.

Indeed, in a real break out, it's entirely probable that after the prices break higher from the upper trend line, it may retest this trend line. That would be the best time to enter. Of course, it may not retest at all. In a rampant bull market like the Bitcoin market, it probably wouldn't. Will see.

BTC prices at Poloniex exchange on the day of my trading
BTC prices at Poloniex on the day of my trading

(There're different prices being traded among different exchanges. There should be arbitrage for the nimble fingers).



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